Ping An of China (601318): Investment income drives net profit growth slightly higher than expected NBV growth of 5%

Ping An of China (601318): Investment income drives net profit growth slightly higher than expected NBV growth of 5%

Investment Highlights: Event: The company releases its 2019 third quarter report.

Realized operating profit attributable to mothers 1,040.

61 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

5% (3Q19 single quarter growth of 16%); net profit attributable to mothers 1,295.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 63 in ten years.

2% (3Q19 single quarter growth of 50%).

Life and health insurance business 深圳桑拿网NBV grew 4.

5%, operating profit growth in line with expectations, the company adjusted the scale of NBV growth rate never decreased by 7.

3% to 5%.

Life insurance and health insurance businesses traded for price, and NBV is expected to grow by 5%.

9M19, Ping An NBV previously increased by 4.

5% (in the third quarter of 19 single quarter growth of 4.

1%), of which NBV FYP increased by -7% year-on-year (in the third quarter of 19, it increased by -2.

0%), the new business value margin is 48.

1%, up 5 per year.

3

.
The company expects the annual NBV growth target to be 5%.

On the whole, the increase in the value rate benefits from: 1.

The product structure is optimized, and the proportion of short-sending and economical services decreases; 2.

In the third quarter of 19th, the company upgraded its main products “Ping An Fu” and “Score” series, and developed a new product “Fu Xing” focusing on the critical illness market. The value rate remained high. The growth of new orders was weak.

The number of agents at the end of the period was 124.

50,000 people, a decrease of 12 from the beginning of the year.

1%, a decrease of 3 from the earlier period.

2%, the team retention rate and capacity indicators fell; 2.

2. The company pursues excellent development and implements the strategy of weakening the beginning of the door, the agent needs time to adjust; 3.

The life insurance company estimates that the structure will be adjusted. The company will split the one and two business groups into five major sales areas: east, west, south, north, and central, and build five large-scale centers.

Looking forward to the future, the company will continue to adhere to the “quality human development” strategy, through technology empowerment, continue to promote the transformation and upgrading of agent channels, at the same time focus on high-value businesses, improve the “product +” service system, the company will focus on promoting the talented person planIt currently accounts for 10%, and the production capacity is 1 of ordinary agents.

7 times?
1.

8 times.

We expect the increase in troop production capacity to be the core driving force for future NBV growth.

The recovery in investment income included a reduction in the effective tax rate to 22.

7%, property insurance operating profit increased by 75.

5%.

At 9M19, Ping An Property and Casualty Insurance, non-car and health insurance had their original premiums increased by 6.

3%, 11.

2% and 37.

9%.Property insurance achieved operating profit of 142.

54 ppm, an increase of 75 in ten years.

5% (among which pre-tax profit increased by 28.

9%, net profit increased by 98.

4%), benefiting from new diabetes regulations and industry regulation, after excluding dialysis one-time effects in 2018 (18.

$ 5.6 billion, the company’s effective tax rate for the first three quarters was 43.

2% decreased to 22.

7%; comprehensive cost rate of 96.

2% (decade +0.

2

), The quality of business remains good, and continuous and continuous industry.

The higher-than-expected investment income drove rapid growth in net profit.

The size of the insurance investment portfolio reached 3.

03 trillion yuan, an earlier growth of 8.

6%.

9M19 annualized return on investment 4.

9% (4 in the same period last year.

7%); annualized total investment yield 6.

0% (4 in the same period last year).

0%).

In 9M19, the company’s non-banking business interest income + investment income + fair value gains / losses for the first three quarters / single third quarter quarterly growth rates were 63.

0% and 29.

2%, driving rapid growth in net profit.

Investment suggestion: raise earnings forecast, EPS is expected to be 8 in 19-21.

56, 8.

91 and 10.

32 yuan (previous forecast was 8.

33, 8.

76 and 10.

27 yuan), the previous growth rate was 42.

1%, 4.

1% and 15.

8%, ROE is 25.

1%, 22.

7% and 23.

2%, budget operating profit is 7 respectively.

46, 8.

78 and 10.

18 yuan (previous forecast was 7).

41, 8.
73 and 10.
13 yuan), higher than the growth rate of 18 respectively.

3%, 17.淡水桑拿网

6% and 16.

0%, the current sustainable corresponding operating profit multiple is 12.

0, 10.

2 and 8.

8x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The equity market fluctuates sharply, long-term interest rates have fallen unilaterally, and the sales of guaranteed products have fallen short of expectations

ZTE Corporation (000063): Production and operations resume on track

ZTE Corporation (000063): Production and operations resume on track

Summary and recommendations: The company released 18-year results and achieved actual revenue of 855.

1ppm, yoyo-21.

41%, net profit attributable to mother -69.

800 million, yoy-252.

88%, net profit after deduction is -33.

9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 475.

86%, equivalent to one income -1.

67 yuan, including 267 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

4.7 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to mothers2.

7.6 billion yuan, 58 year on year.

41%.

The company’s business gradually recovered from 3Q18, and cash flow from operating activities in 4Q turned positive.

In addition, the company foresees a net profit of 800-120 million in 1Q19, which was repeated 54 in the same period last year.

07 billion.

In the second half of 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology accumulates 5G licenses with a high probability. 5G is gradually converted from actual warm-up to actual investment. The company is one of the world’s major communications major equipment manufacturers and will obviously benefit from 5G investment construction.Consolidate current estimates and maintain a “Buy” rating.

The performance of Q1 in 2019 improved significantly, and the company gradually returned to the right track: in 2018, it suffered significant outstanding results from a one-time civil fine of US $ 1 billion paid by the US Department of Commerce and the Security Agency, and business stagnation due to the embargo in the second quarter of 2018.

The main business began to gradually recover in the third quarter of last year, with revenue of 267 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

47 million, operating cash flow is 10.

10,000 yuan.

Companies are coming out of conflict.

The forecast net profit for the first quarter of 2019 is 8-12 trillion, which was repeated 54 in the same period last year.

07 trillion, performance recovery potential.

Strengthen cost control and increase investment in research and development: In the company’s three quarterly report, the company proposed to strengthen cost control, focus on the main business and increase 5G investment.

Benefiting from the strengthening of cost control, the gross profit margin of the operator’s business increased by 0 in 18 years.

33%.

At the same time, the percentage of gross profit in consumer business revenue fell by 10%.

twenty one%.

无锡夜网Comprehensive impact Comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 1.

84%.

18 years of funding research and development 109.

10,000 yuan, accounting for 0% increase in revenue.

84 up to 12.

8%, comprehensive deployment of 5G, cloud computing, edge computing, Internet of Things and other fields.

It is expected that the company will continue to expand R & D investment in the future and improve its technology accumulation in the 5G field.

After processing the subsidiaries and accounts payable, reloaded lightly: affected by the embargo, the company’s merged subsidiaries were reorganized, and the company transferred and transferred a total of 13 subsidiaries in 18 years, which can change the long-term equity investment in Nubia.10.

9.4 billion.

In 18 years, the company made significant provision for impairment losses on accounts receivable34.

400 million US dollars, accounts receivable + bills receivable reduced from 26.4 billion to 21.6 billion.Another 18 years the company’s goodwill was impaired1.

300 million.

After dealing with potential subsidiaries and bad debts, the company can enter the market lightly, and its 19-year performance growth can be expected.

Domestic 5G licenses are about to emerge, and performance growth can be expected: 2019 is a key year for 4G to 5G transition. It is expected that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release 5G operating licenses in the second half of the year.

Referring to the changes in the performance of communication equipment manufacturers before and after the 4G license distribution in 2013, one year before the 5G license distribution and two years after the license distribution, the equipment manufacturer’s performance redemption period.

The China Academy of Information and Communication Technology estimates that by 2020, the network and terminal equipment revenue will total 4500 trillion, and telecommunications operators will invest more than 2200 trillion in 5G network equipment.

Judging from the capital expenditure plans of the three major operators in 2019, the overall growth rate is expected to be about 5%, and the capital expansion is biased towards the wireless side. The wireless side investment of the three major operators exceeds 130 billion yuan, an increase of 15%.

The company will usher in a growth period of 3-4 years.

Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve net profit in 2019 and 202049.

79, 65.

310,000 yuan, +171.

30%, +31.

16%, equivalent to 1.

19, 1.

56 yuan, the current corresponding PE of A shares is 24.

7, 18.

84 times.

The company is one of the core targets of the 5G industry chain and is expected to continue to benefit.

Give “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: 1. The 5G investment progress is less than expected; 2. Intensified competition in the communications industry leads to a decline in the company’s gross margin and market share.

Fengyuan (002805): Two materials of lithium battery have successively exceeded NCM811 and have reached LG standards

Fengyuan (002805): Two materials of lithium battery have successively exceeded NCM811 and have reached LG standards

Event: The company issued an announcement that ternary transition materials have made progress in stages: (1) Of the 3,000 tons of 5 series ternary materials, 2,000 tons are in full production and sales, and another 1,000 tons are in trial production, and full production is expected at the end of July; (2)The high nickel 811 ternary material pilot product has been tested by RTL Co., Ltd., the authoritative testing agency for lithium batteries in South Korea. The main performance indicators are: 204mAh / g gram capacity, 90% first effect, all of which have reached the international advanced level in the same industry and meet LG in KoreaSelection criteria for chemical 3C lithium battery materials.

The 2,000-ton high nickel 811 ternary material production line is in the installation and construction stage.

  Lithium batteries have made breakthroughs in alkaline materials.

The company’s lithium-ion alkaline materials are held high. Under the direction of Dr. Jin Youcheng, the former chief technology officer of GSEM, the high-nickel NCM 811 material has developed rapidly, and has now reached South Korea’s LG Chemical 3C lithium battery material selection standards.

The company actively promotes the 2,000-ton NCM 811 ternary material production line. The three main equipments are from Japan’s Takasago, Japan’s Hosokawa and other internationally renowned manufacturers. They have arrived in May and are currently in the installation stage.

The company plans to use the main raw materials for production, adopt imported or domestic high-quality products, and use the “4M system management mode” (raw materials, equipment, process methods, personnel management) to create industry-leading product performance standards.

  The company’s 2,000 tons of NCM 523 are in full production and sales, and another 1,000 tons are in trial production. It is expected to be full at the end of July.

In addition, the company’s first phase of LFP transition materials was 3,000 tons in full production and sales.

At present, the major material customers include Penghui Energy, BAK, Xunyou Power, Jiatuo New Energy, Voltatone and other well-known domestic battery companies. Other customers are expected to verify breakthroughs one after another.

The company’s long-term plan for lithium battery alkaline materials5.

  The supply and demand of industrial oxalic acid is good, and the price continues to rise.

Since the beginning of this year, the restart of rare earth mining overseas, the improvement of the margins of the pharmaceutical industry and the mining of non-rare earth (copper, iron ore, etc.) mining have led to a rise in the volume and price of the oxalic acid industry.From January to April 2019, the net export volume reached 3.

In August, at least + 42%.

The company has the highest production capacity 武汉夜生活网 of 10 and great flexibility, and plans to build 10 new oxalic acid production capacity in the future.

  Electronic grade oxalic acid has a wide space.

Driven by 5G, consumer electronics and automotive electronics, the MLCC industry has ushered in rapid development. The oxalate co-precipitation method, as the main method for preparing barium titanate (the main material of MLCC basic powder), is expected to drive demand for electronic-grade oxalic acid.

The company provides customized high-purity electronic grade oxalic acid to multilayer supercapacitors for Panasonic in Japan. The downstream mainly includes new energy vehicles and other fields. The application area is huge, and the demand for oxalic acid is expected to be 2 years / year. As a domestic electronic grade oxalic acid and oxalic acidThe main supplier of acid 南宁桑拿 salts, benefiting from the large space of electronic grade oxalic acid.

  Maintain “Buy” investment rating.

It is estimated that the net profit in 19-21 will be 0.

78, 1.

38 and 2.

13 trillion, EPS is 0.

54, 0.

97 and 1.

62 yuan, corresponding to PE of 25X, 14X and 8X, maintaining the “buy” level.

  Risk warning: the risk of product price fluctuations, the risk of product expansion beyond expectations.

TCL Group (000100) quarterly report review 2019: LCD panel industry bottoms out and company profitability continues to improve

TCL Group (000100) quarterly report review 2019: LCD panel industry bottoms out and company profitability continues to improve

Performance summary: The company achieved operating income of USD 29.6 billion in the first quarter of 2019, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

8 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

6%.

Excluding the assets subject to restructuring, the company’s pro forma net profit for the first quarter was 9.

3 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.

6%; net profit attributable to mother is 7.

700 million, five years growth.

2%.

The LCD panel industry bottomed out, and Huaxing Optoelectronics’ small size expansion performance was dazzling.

1Q1 Huaxing Optoelectronics achieved an expansion of 5.56 million square meters, an increase of 17 per year.

1%; realized operating income of 72.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.

1%; net profit achieved 6.

800 million, an increase of 35.

2%.

Although the price of major products of Huaxing Optoelectronics Q1 has decreased compared to the same period of last year due to the downturn of the 北京桑拿洗浴 industry cycle, the industry ‘s overall bottom-up trend has now emerged, which has resulted in a significant improvement in the company’s performance.

19Q1 two 8.

The fifth-generation lines t1 and t2 continue to consolidate the industrial division of the large-size field. The 32-inch product ranks second in the world, and the 55-inch UD product is ranked first in the world. The sixth-generation LTPS-LCD production line t3 is full and sold.The volume is 27.28 million pieces, ranking third in the world and growing by 5 every year.

9 times, the area is expected to grow by 5 per year.

3 times, sales income grows nearly 4 times each year to achieve better operating profits.

Large-size and flexible OLEDs are progressing smoothly, helping the company’s long-term development.

Except for the t1-t3 production line, which continues to maintain full production and sales, the company’s 杭州桑拿 production lines in the 11th generation of ultra-large LCD and flexible OLED fields are progressing smoothly.

The 11th generation t6 production line is positioned in 65-inch and 75-inch ultra-large new display panels. The current climbing and yield progress are leading, and it is expected to be fully produced by the end of 2019. The 11th generation t7 production line is positioned at 65-inch and 70-inch.(21: 9), 75-inch 8K ultra-high-definition display and AMOLED flexible screen products are currently under construction according to plan; the sixth-generation LTPS-AMOLED flexible production line t4 is in the ramp-up stage of production capacity and yield, and sample submission and verification by strategic customersWork is progressing in an orderly manner.

The restructuring target appeared in the second quarter, which will significantly improve operating indicators.

From the second quarter of 2019, the Group’s smart terminals and supporting businesses will be replaced by listed companies and will no longer replace the scope of TCL Group’s consolidated statements.

In the first quarter of 2019, the Group continued to deepen reforms, continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and net profit replaced 3.

4%, the cost rate drops by 1 every year.

With 9 averages, ROE increases by 0 per year.

For two assets, the asset-liability ratio dropped to 68.

1%; and after excluding the assets of the specimen, the net profit rate of the listed company will reach 7.

8%, the asset-liability ratio will be further reduced by 59.

1% will significantly optimize the capital structure and significantly improve profitability.

Profit forecast and rating.

After the reorganization, it is estimated that the pro forma operating income and net profit attributable to mothers of listed companies in 2019 will be 66.5 billion and 4 billion, respectively. With reference to the valuation of panel companies in the same industry, maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: the risk of panel price fluctuations; the risk of exchange rate changes; the risk of major asset restructurings not meeting expectations or termination

Boss Electric (002508) 2019 Interim Report Review: Engineering Channel Speeds Up Again, Expects Third Quarter Results to Improve

Boss Electric (002508) 2019 Interim Report Review: Engineering Channel Speeds Up Again, Expects Third Quarter Results to Improve
[Investment Highlights]The company released its 2019 interim results, and the company achieved operating income of 35 in 2019H1.27 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.88%; net profit attributable to mother 6.70 ppm, an increase of ten years.52%.The company achieved revenue of 18 in Q2.67 ppm, 10-year average1.98%; net profit attributable to mothers3.$ 5.1 billion, twice a year.11%. In addition, the company expects that net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 2% -10% in the first three quarters of 2019, corresponding to a scale of 10.32-11.13 ppm, corresponding to Q3 single quarter expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers3.62-4.43 ppm, a 10-year increase3.13% -26.The growth rate of 21% was significantly higher than that of Q2, and the company’s operating performance in the third quarter is expected to recover. Affected by the real estate cycle, the company’s business is under pressure, but there are still bright spots in the engineering channel.In terms of categories, the growth rate of 2019H1 range hoods / gas stoves / disinfection cabinets reached -1 respectively.11% /-1.74% / 8.71%, although the hood and cooker overlap slightly, they are still better than the industry growth, and the performance of the disinfection cabinet is slightly higher than expected.The steam box / oven / oven / water purifier grows to -9 each year.14% /-28.3% / 21.22% /-10.75%, the budget company’s inter-bank layout is also very effective,杭州夜网论坛 integrated stoves achieved about 80 million revenue in the first half.In terms of discrete channels, demand for kitchen appliances shrinks due to land expansion, and competition in the industry is intensified. Agents are expected to substitute for delivery under the dual pressure of sales and funds. It is expected that the retail side will be divided into two figures, but after two consecutive quarters of replacementDealer inventory has reached the expected extremely low water level, leaving enough room for future channel inventory storage; the online layout is relatively stable, and the small number is expected to increase; it is worth noting that the H1 engineering channel growth rate was 80%, 50% from the first quarterThe growth rate has further increased, and the market share of fine decoration has reached 37.8% ranks first. We analyze that the company benefited from the development of strategic customers in the engineering channel and the growth of fine decoration orders in the first half of the year. With the positive realization of real estate completion in the future, the company’s engineering channel helps maintain rapid growth. The price of raw materials dropped and the tax rate was restructured to reduce profitability.19H1 company’s gross profit margin increased short-term1.24pct to 54.66%, our analysis is mainly due to the cost-side pressure released by falling raw material prices, increasing the replacement tax rate and driving down the overall gross profit margin. Among them, the gross profit margin of range hoods / gas stoves respectively increased.97/1.23pct.During the same period, the sales / management / financial expense ratio increased by 0.48 / -0.28/0.54pct, the company still insists on a number of active brand promotion strategies under the pressure of revenue. We believe that it is mainly related to the company’s second major products such as the steam box are in the marketing period. Accounts receivable increased significantly, and advance receipts slightly replaced.19H1 Company accounts receivable + notes total 19.64 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.54%, accounting for more than 25% of current assets, and we think it is mainly related to the increase in the company’s engineering channel ratio and the lengthening of the payment cycle.Accounts received in advance 11.$ 14 trillion, an average of 3 per year.05%, indicating that the dealer’s expectation of picking up and paying money has slightly decreased. [Investment suggestion]As the actual completion of the project in the second half of the year gradually improves with delivery expectations, the company is expected to be the first release bureau in its refined decoration market and the brand advantage to take the lead in realizing the volume of engineering channels.However, considering that the company will continue to move forward under the pressure of real estate in the short term of two or three years, and the performance is still under certain pressure, the profit forecast is revised down, and the company’s revenue is expected to reach 80 in 19/20/21.05/87.56/97.5.3 billion, net profit attributable to mother 15.93/17.63/19.760,000 yuan, EPS1.68/1.86/2.08 yuan, corresponding to PE 15/14/12 times, maintain “Buy” rating. [Risk Tips]The real estate boom will further decline; raw material prices will rise; industry competition will intensify.

Hua’an Fund: Global Economic Growth Slows Down, Gold Allocation Value Highlights

Hua’an Fund: Global Economic Growth Slows Down, Gold Allocation Value Highlights

Global economic growth is slowing down and the value of gold allocation is highlightedExpected 0.

2 and 0.

1 perfect to 3.

5% and 3.

6%.

This is another cut after the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth for the first time in October.

  From a macro perspective, the global economic growth in 2018 has entered a stage of “broad fiscal and tight currency”. The momentum of economic growth has shown many tedious growth signals, and frequent financial risks are not good for capital market investment.

Looking forward to 2009, the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may emerge, the instability of the US financial system, and the risk of inflection points in the economic recovery cycle determine that 2019 will become a big year for gold investment. Gold, as an important asset allocation tool, is showing its hedging.Advantages of economic growth risk and stock market risk.

  During the three years from 2016 to 2018, gold ETFs performed better than the CSI 300 Index, CSI 5佛山夜网论坛00 Index, and CSI 1000 Index.

Gold has been able to achieve such results in the past three years, which is related to the potential downward pressure on the economic cycle and the deviation of the global currency credit system.

The basic attribute of gold is credit hedging, which is specifically manifested in the negative correlation between the price of gold and physical credit and currency credit.

The physical credit reflects the stability of the real economy operating system, and the currency credit reflects the stability of the credit currency system.

In fact, the US economic growth pattern and the stability of the currency system have driven the international gold price trend in the medium and long term, and risk appetite determines the short-term changes in gold prices.

And we believe that the attribute of entity credit hedging will become a factor in the next stage.

  According to the “Merrill Lynch Clock” theory, during the period of economic fundamental recovery and prosperity, the opportunity cost and interest loss brought by economic growth reduce the gold holding income, and the prosperity of the real economy also supports the appreciation of the currency.Generally suppressed.

As economic growth moves from prosperity to recession, the relative returns of gold assets will gradually emerge through the exhaustion of the real economy.

At this stage, the economic momentum declines, and the destruction of the economic system causes the accumulation of physical credit risk. The asset price based on the credit of the real economy will fall, and the price of gold will hedge the credit risk of the entity.

Monetary policy has been relaxed due to the reduction in the depression process and the collapse of the real economic growth. The economic system and the credit currency system are the most vulnerable. Gold often has positive returns at this stage.

  According to the current tracking of the operation of the global economy and financial system, it is currently entering a stage of decline from prosperity.

The global economy is still expanding further, although some economies’ growth in the third quarter of 2018 has been weaker than expected.

The data show that the global economic growth momentum has further reduced in the fourth quarter: PMIs in major global countries are shrinking, especially the US purchasing manager index (especially the new order index) declined sharply in December; gradually industrial production, especially the production of capital goods, has slowed down; The growth rate of global trade has fallen to the average level in 2017, because the phenomenon of export rush caused by the increase in tariffs has subsided; US housing sales have fallen in December, and Toronto house prices have also fallen for a year. These phenomena indicate the current global economyThe outlook is shrouded in haze.

  Looking ahead, the uncertainty facing the global economic outlook mainly comes from the uncertainty of the international trading environment and the evolution of financial market sentiment.

Financial conditions have tightened since last fall.

Under the environment of high expected economic growth, the drop in oil prices caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the crude oil market has become the fuse of the financial market.

The continuously rising downward trend is manifested in the downward trend in the level of US inflation, which has dragged down the yield on US Treasury bonds, causing the yield curve to be inverted and the actual PPI and CPI data falling.

Global investors’ optimism about corporate earnings prospects has weakened and stock markets have been sold off.

Since the new year, the implementation of the Saudi-led OPEC production reduction agreement has boosted crude oil prices and global risk appetite has increased.

But in general, the US government ‘s “closed door” trade-off, Britain ‘s Brexit deal vote was rejected, and “no deal” Brexit may increase.Factors such as fluctuations in industrial production may further affect financial market sentiment.

  The risk of economic recession will boost the risk aversion of investors, and the lack of manufacturing and aggregate demand in emerging markets has triggered investors’ returns on the profit reduction of profitable companies.

In the macro environment where the tightening of monetary policy is nearing its end and the macroeconomic recovery is sluggish, the downside of risk asset estimates and the rise in the risk-to-haven ratio of risk assets are sustainable.

At present, the value of long-term gold allocation is prominent.

In addition to deducting the purchased physical gold and various “paper gold”, a gold ETF that can be configured directly on the market is also a convenient choice.

Three days grabbing 8.5 billion yuan foreign flows reversed?

Three days grabbing 8.5 billion yuan foreign flows reversed?

Raising 8.5 billion yuan in three days, the flow of foreign countries reversed?

  Source: China Securities Network. On Wednesday, the three major A-share indexes continued the trend of sideways shocks, and the trading volume could continue to shrink.

  Under the appearance of exponential calm, some of the market’s scenic spots are performing in full swing.

Northbound funds not only conveyed positive signals, but also achieved net inflows for the third consecutive day this week.

This is the third consecutive day of northbound capital inflows after March 18 this year.

  The 5G concept of local attractions such as Fengshui is definitely the strongest main line in the market this week.

Dongcai’s 5G concept index rose for three consecutive days, with an overall increase of nearly 5%.

Individual stocks have set off a rising tide in succession. Leading rising leader Mingpu Optical Magnetic has recently expanded six consecutive boards. Huamai Technology and Xintian Technology have also harvested three consecutive boards.

  According to the news, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will gradually renew 5G commercial licenses, announcing that it will officially enter the first year of 5G commercials.

  After comparing historical data, China Merchants Securities pointed out that after the issuance of 3G licenses, the communications industry has continuously started to its highest point and has increased by nearly 98% for a period of about one year. After the distribution of 4G licenses, the communications industry has experienced a maximum increase of nearly 243%.About one and a half years, several “licensing quotes” were determined.

  Experts from China Merchants Securities, at the current point of time, are optimistic about the investment value of the 5G industry in the next two to three years. It is recommended to break through the “three bright lines” for layout, that is, 5G infrastructure construction, 5G downstream application explosion, and 5G bring comprehensive ITCloudification, while paying attention to the possibility of autonomous controllability brought about by the full import substitution of core components.

南宁桑拿  In addition, the agricultural sector made a comeback after only one day of short-term adjustments. Wanxiang Denong, Dunhuang Seeds, Suken Nongfa and many other harvests stopped rising.

The rare-earth permanent magnet sector also regained its uptrend. The new leader in the Cathay Pacific Group harvested the third consecutive plate, and the top executives of Galaxy, Dehong and other stocks also reached daily limits.

  The brokerage sector changed in the afternoon, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to rise briefly.

In the final close, Hualin Securities rose 6.

47%, this week’s gradual growth rate reached 14%, China Everbright Securities grew more than 3%, Haitong Securities, Huachuang Yangan grew more than 2%.

  Tianfeng Securities believes that the current estimates of the brokerage sector have been adjusted to the position of relative error, and combined with the estimated level and medium and long-term trends, continue to recommend the brokerage sector.

In terms of allocation, the institutional construction (underwriting, offline development) related to the science and technology board is speeding up. Leading securities companies will play a competitive advantage in project reserves and capital, and will benefit from the capital market development bonus.

  Northbound funds grabbed 8.5 billion US dollars for three days. The market fluctuated across the board this week, but Northbound funds changed their 5-month net alternating situation and realized net buying for three consecutive days.

  As of the close of June 5, the total net inflow of funds from the north via the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect was 30.

5.8 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 22.

7.6 billion yuan, net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect 7.

8.2 billion.

On Monday and Tuesday, there was a net inflow of 44 northbound funds.

07 billion and 10.

64 trillion, the first three trading days this week have gradually net inflow of 85.

2.9 billion yuan.

  In the past May, Northbound funds sold 536 in a single month.

US $ 7.4 billion, a record high.

But since entering June, northbound funds have turned into a continuous net inflow.

  In the past month, the inflow of northbound funds was in progress. Related parties analyzed that a series of adjustments have been made. A large number of specimens of A shares have changed to a certain extent. In short, the estimate is “cheap”; it is an alternative to MSCI.The doubling of shares has officially taken effect at the end of May, and it has since overlapped with the A-share division. The FTSE Russell Index System will take effect on June 24, so the net inflow will be resumed redundantly.

  Whether foreign flows can be reversed in this regard remains to be answered by the market, but many institutions remain optimistic.

  Northeast Securities said that after a certain convergence in the growth trend of northbound funds at the end of May, northbound funds turned into a net inflow again at the beginning of June, the largest inflow since May except MSCI capacity expansion, and a positive signal for the direction of northbound funds.
The current evaluation structure of the A-share market is similar to that at the end of December 2012, and the long-term allocation is cost-effective.

  Huachuang Securities predicts that medium and long-term foreign investment may continue to be transmitted and become a new round of market transformation force.

China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (600195): African swine plague pressures performance and pressure to improve this year

China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (600195): African swine plague pressures performance and pressure to improve this year

We expect net profit attributable to mothers in 20193.

500,000 yuan, at least -15.

7% We expect China Mumu to return to net profit in 20193.

500,000 yuan, at least -15.

The decline of 7% was mainly due to the pressure of swine vaccine sales in Africa due to the swine fever epidemic in Africa, and the decline in the revenue of feed and chemical business.

  Key points of attention: Foot-and-mouth disease vaccine layout has been strengthened, and vaccine sales have a chance to recover this year: The African swine fever epidemic in 2019 will increase the overall growth rate of the pig breeding industry. As a result, the company’s pig vaccine sales are under pressure.

Looking forward, we judge that the company’s sales will resume this year.

第一,随大型生猪养殖企业产能恢复,我们预计其出栏量将于2Q20 起逐步向上,这将利好中牧猪用疫苗销售;第二,公司重点布局口蹄疫疫苗,近期已获猪口蹄疫O-A 二价疫苗The production number can match the epidemic strain. Therefore, the company’s foot-and-mouth disease vaccine product line has been expanded, and with the three-level transformation of biosafety this year, the company’s competitiveness in foot-and-mouth disease vaccine products has increased. Third, the company’s Lanzhou plant recently closed the cloth disease vaccine.Production line, considering the low proportion of brucellosis vaccine in Lanzhou factory’s revenue, we think this has a limited impact on the company’s performance.

  The rebound in production capacity increases export expectations, and the chemical business improves this year: The demand for veterinary drugs for pigs in the African swine fever epidemic has decreased. At the same time, due to the veterinary drug restriction policy and the suspension of Zhongmu Anda, we expect that the company’s chemical drug business sales and revenue will be highest in 2019.

Looking forward, considering the prospect of Zhongmu Anda’s resumption of production, we judge that the company’s chemical drug sales will promote improvement this year, and the company has passed FDA certification, and the export of chemical drugs may contribute to sales growth.

  The impact of the new crown epidemic is limited; the African swine fever vaccine is expected to benefit the company’s development: Under the new crown virus epidemic, the company’s impact mainly reflects the obstruction of offline sales, but we believe that the epidemic’s impact on the company is short-term and controllable.

In 西安耍耍网 addition, the African swine fever vaccine continues to be developed, and staged progress has been made. This year, the Central Document No. 1 also pointed out that the development of swine fever vaccine should be accelerated.

Considering the hardware measures and industrialization capabilities that the company has as a state-owned enterprise, we believe that after the vaccine is commercialized, the company is expected to explore opportunities for performance growth from it.

  The estimated and recommended budgets correspond to 29/24/20 times P / E ratios for 2019/20/21, and we maintain our 2019/20 attributable net profit forecast3.

50/4.

1.5 billion US dollars unchanged, and return to mother net profit forecast in 20215.

04 billion.

Because there is no timetable for the launch of the African swine fever vaccine and there are certain uncertainties, we will not consider its impact on the company’s performance in the profit forecast.

According to the recent increase in market risk caused by new coronary disease, the industry estimates that the center may move downwards to a certain extent. We lower our target price.

8% to 16.

0 yuan, corresponding to 38/33/27 times P / E ratio in 2019/20/21, corresponding to 34% upside.

Maintain Outperform rating.

  Risk Epidemics and policy risks; Company reforms and new product promotion are less than expected risks.

Oupai Home (603833): 19-year performance forecast meets expectations, comprehensive advantages, stay ahead

Oupai Home (603833): 19-year performance forecast meets expectations, comprehensive advantages, stay ahead

Investment Highlights The company released a 19-year performance forecast: 19-year revenue increased by 10-20% to 126.

6-138.

100 million, net profit attributable to mother increased by 15-25% to 18.

08-19.

6.5 billion, deducting non-attribution net profit increased by 10-20% to 16.

47-17.

9.6 billion, of which non-recurring profits and losses mainly come from government subsidies.

2.8 billion (about 0 in the first three quarters).

55 billion).

Estimated income in 19Q4 is 31.

25-42.

7.5 billion (decade-6.

8% to +29.

1%), net profit attributable to mother 4.

3-5.

8.7 billion (previously +15.

7% to +57.

9%), deducting non-attributed net profit 3.

56-5.

0.5 billion (decade +0.

(87% to + 43%), growth in line with expectations.

Diversified channels continue to exert their strength, and large home furnishings are gradually getting better: (1) Retail channels: The company continues to promote the transformation of dealers from retailers to supplier service providers, and strengthens refined management of channels. In 20 years, the informatization of stores will be fully promoted.The integration of the former and the Chinese improves efficiency; the overall company also plans to launch a high-end series of reinforcing product matrices.

(2) Engineering channels: Q1-Q3 income of 15 in 19 years.

4.7 billion (+50.

90%), has become the main growth point of the company’s performance, has long-term strategic cooperation with 47 top 100 real estate, 19Q4 is expected to continue to continue the growth trend, driving the company’s market share to further increase.

(3) Large-scale home furnishings: The model is gradually rationalized, and the interests of traditional retail dealers are coordinated. The number of large-scale home furnishings has increased rapidly, until 251 in 19Q3, and the order is expected to be about 700 million in 19 years. It is expected to grow in 20 years.Doubled, and planned to build an independent production line to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

The category was developed smoothly, and the T5 plan was promoted to increase customer value: the company’s kitchen cabinets / closets / bathrooms in the first three quarters achieved wooden revenue of 44.

9.6 billion (+6.

19%) / 35.

5.0 billion (+21.

27%) / 4.

4 billion (+43.

30%) / 4.

1.3 billion (+37.

37%), kitchen clothing and multi-category integration of the most smooth.

In addition, the company’s wardrobe promotes the T5 plan, focusing on the overall bedroom space, enhancing the matching of functional accessories and custom cabinets to enhance the value of customers.

The 20-year completion 苏州夜网论坛 area is expected to face oncoming repairs, and the cycle is picking up after seeing more land: We judge that as the development cycle gradually stabilizes, new construction starts in the early stage, and the completion of the misplaced gradual excess construction area is expected to steadily enter the completion delivery period, starting from 19Q3There has been a significant upward turning point in the rate of completion.

We conservatively assume completion / building area ratios of 12% and 12 in 19-20, respectively.5%, it is estimated that the completed area in 19-20 years is 6, respectively.

4.4 billion (-2%), 7.

1.2 billion (+ 11%) square meters, optimistic about the repair of next year’s delivery data next year will continue to drive home business orders to pick up.

Channels are gradually expanding and consolidation 上海夜网论坛 of navigation beacons: The company has a rich product matrix and a large home strategy has continued to land. At the same time, it actively promotes the decline of retail stores, exploring the transformation of bulk, e-commerce, and assembly channels., Supply chain and other aspects have comprehensive advantages, optimistic about its continuous integration market share!

Profit forecast and investment grade: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 134 in 19/20/21.

8/157.

41.83 billion, an increase of 17.

1% / 16.

8% / 16.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 18.

9/21.

7/25.

100 million, an increase of 20.

2% / 15.

0% / 15.

4%.

The current corresponding PE is 25.

27X / 21.

97X / 19.

04X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Real Estate Forecast Exceeds Expectations, New Business Expansion Does Not Meet Expectations

Aojiahua (002614): Lazy Economy 4D Massage

Aojiahua (002614): Lazy Economy 4D Massage

The massage equipment industry has a large space, and the market share of leading companies has increased: In Japan and South Korea and other countries or regions, some massage equipment industries are still in the introduction period.

Absolutely, the consumption 北京夜网 level of the benefiting residents has increased, the rise of shared massage chairs, and the rapid growth of the domestic massage appliance industry.

In our opinion, Aojiahua surpasses technology, channel advantages, brand integration capabilities and market share.

Product technology leading product-oriented company: Aojiahua focuses on research and development, and the size of the research and development team exceeds that of major domestic leaders.

In 2018, Aojia invested nearly 200 million in research and development, YoY + 36.

3%.

As of the end of 2018, the company has gradually been granted 564 patents, more than its domestic counterparts.

According to the company’s official website, Aojiahua has mastered 4D temperature-sensing massage movement technology, but the vertical technology is only used for Japanese brand massage chairs.

Successfully integrated OGAWA, transforming the brand business from the founding business: The company was originally a core supplier of OGAWA.

In January 2014, the company acquired OGAWA.

After 2015?
In 2016, when the operation was adjusted, OGAWA brand sales achieved rapid growth, which reflected the company’s ability to integrate the brand.

In 2017, the company name was changed from “Mengfali” to “Aojiahua”.

Explosive massage chair products lead the market: In recent years, Aojiahua has launched a high-end product, the master of warm hands, using a 4D temperature-sensitive movement. The accuracy and comfort of massage surpasses the competition, and its technology is ahead of its competitors.

Aojiahua invites Eason Chan to speak for the product, making this prototype of about 4 mm into an explosion model, with sales of 3 in 2018.

70,000 units.

We believe that the launch of explosive products not only effectively stimulates the company’s revenue growth, but also has a better declaration effect on the brand.

Successful operation of independent brands overseas: Aojiahua has dual independent brand businesses in domestic and overseas markets.

Ojiahua owns 7 independent brands through self-construction or mergers and acquisitions, and its products are sold in more than 60 countries and regions.

In 2018, independent brand revenue accounted for nearly 40% of total revenue.

Continue to develop overseas foundry customers: Ojiahua’s ODM export share has ranked first in the industry for 14 consecutive years.

Aojiahua has established long-term cooperative relationships with many well-known brands such as Panasonic, and is highly dependent on a single export customer.

In the end, Ogilvy focused on developing the ODM business of massage chairs in South Korea and the United States, and achieved certain results.

Aojiahua has signed 2019 with South Korea’s second largest massage chair brand Bok Jung Scale Corp?
The purchase agreement in 2021 this year also began to replace BodyFriend, Korea’s largest massage chair brand.

Investment suggestion: Aojiahua has perfect R & D strength, has internal experience in successfully operating its own brand, and overseas OEM customer cooperation is also steadily advancing. We expect the company to be in 2019?
Earnings per share for 2020 is 1.

00/1.

25 yuan, maintain Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 16.

00 yuan, corresponding to 16 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2019.

Risk reminder: Macroeconomic fluctuations, RMB appreciation, foreign trade policy risks